Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -270 UVU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -11.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -10.5 (-12.5) | 146.4 (+5.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -10.6 (-12.6) | 146.8 (+5.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -9.2 (-11.2) | 145.4 (+6.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -6.8 (-8.8) | 142.3 (+9.7) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-1 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-0 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#35) | 6.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#12) | 0.87 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.45 (#7) | 1.74 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#24) | 0.549 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 44.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 39.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 38.5% |
Game Analysis
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