Betting Lines
| Spread | SCST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU +100 SCST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCST +12 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SCST -1.8 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCST -0.7 (-11.3) | 144.5 (+7.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -0.3 (-12.3) | 139.6 (+12.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCST -0.4 (-11.6) | 139.7 (+12.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCST -0.9 (-11.1) | 142.9 (+9.1) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-3 |
| Home | 8-9 | 10-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -13.7 (#353) | -5.5 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#286) | -1.80 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#288) | -2.72 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.345 (#338) | 0.273 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.1% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 22.5% | 22.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.5% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 54.5% | 60.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.1% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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