Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Farris Center (Neutral) · November 23, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNCA -8.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money SEMO +340 / UNCA -450
Model Predictions
Spread Total SEMO win
Actual UNCA +8 136 Lost
Massey UNCA -2.4 (-5.6)
Massey Totals 156.1 (-20.1)
Bradley-Terry 8%
Weighted B-T 1%
Baseline Plus ML UNCA -1.7 (-6.3) 149.9 (-13.9) 40%
Baseline ML UNCA -0.9 (-7.1) 149.4 (-13.4) 45%
Baseline Tuned ML UNCA -0.6 (-7.4) 147.2 (-11.2) 43%
Efficiency Plus ML UNCA -2.5 (-5.5) 146.4 (-10.4) 31%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SEMO UNCA
Overall 21-12 21-11
Conference 15-5 11-5
Home 12-3 13-1
Away 8-7 6-9
Neutral 1-2 2-1
Last 5 1-3 1-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.3 78.9
Avg Pts Against 69.3 79.5
Massey -5.4 (#269) -3.0 (#219)
Bradley-Terry -1.10 (#269) 1.31 (#83)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.93 (#275) 2.39 (#62)
RPI 0.464 (#231) 0.566 (#91)
Shooting & Four Factors SEMO UNCA
FG% 43.4% 39.5%
3PT% 33.0% 35.7%
REB / G 33.0 37.7
OREB / G 7.8 14.7
AST / TO 1.09 1.31
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 45.6%
TOV% 15.3% 13.5%
ORB% 20.3% 32.8%
FT Rate 13.6% 15.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 57.0%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 13.6%
DRB% 67.8% 64.5%
Opp FT Rate 39.3% 29.6%

Game Analysis

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