Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -425 TLSA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +36 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -10.8 (+25.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -10.6 (+25.4) | 156.6 (-14.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -9.7 (+26.3) | 154.5 (-12.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -9.5 (+26.5) | 157.2 (-15.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -11.8 (+24.2) | 153.6 (-11.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2023 | TLSA 88 – 77 LUC |
| Nov 18, 2022 | TLSA 85 – 66 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-9 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#179) | -4.8 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#5) | -1.56 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.44 (#8) | -2.81 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.684 (#19) | 0.335 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.