Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA +122 LUC -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -5.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -3.7 (+7.3) | 139.4 (+25.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -4.1 (+6.9) | 136.4 (+28.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -4.1 (+6.9) | 136.4 (+28.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -2.7 (+8.3) | 141.9 (+23.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | LUC 89 – 53 TLSA |
| Nov 18, 2022 | TLSA 85 – 66 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#143) | 2.0 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#225) | 0.86 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#231) | 1.63 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#308) | 0.535 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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