Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -800 OMA +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +8 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -4.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -4.4 (+3.6) | 150.2 (+25.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -4.5 (+3.5) | 148.4 (+27.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -4.2 (+3.8) | 146.2 (+29.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -7.0 (+1.0) | 149.3 (+26.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 13-3 |
| Home | 16-0 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#207) | 0.2 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#205) | -0.47 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#205) | -0.75 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#179) | 0.457 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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