Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +36 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -26.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -22.9 (+13.1) | 132.5 (-8.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -21.8 (+14.2) | 134.9 (-10.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -21.4 (+14.6) | 134.7 (-10.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -17.7 (+18.3) | 131.7 (-7.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2021 | HOU 83 – 75 HOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 10-0 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#7) | 0.7 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#199) | 1.54 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#195) | 1.78 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#195) | 0.605 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 48.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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