Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -7500 PAC +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +35 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -22.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -25.2 (+9.8) | 149.4 (-2.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -26.5 (+8.5) | 149.4 (-2.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -21.4 (+13.6) | 148.5 (-1.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -20.4 (+14.6) | 147.1 (-0.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 18-2 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#25) | -3.8 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#74) | -1.62 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#63) | -2.32 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#60) | 0.395 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 38.9% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.