Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -190 NCCU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +14 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -3.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -5.2 (+8.8) | 144.0 (+28.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -4.2 (+9.8) | 142.7 (+29.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -3.3 (+10.7) | 142.4 (+29.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -4.4 (+9.6) | 144.3 (+27.7) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#271) | -2.4 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#255) | -0.94 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#258) | -1.04 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#258) | 0.422 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 27.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.