Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -290 DREX +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -4.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -4.0 (-6.0) | 136.2 (+7.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -4.6 (-6.6) | 136.4 (+7.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -4.2 (-6.2) | 136.6 (+7.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -2.1 (-4.1) | 139.9 (+4.1) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#197) | 0.4 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#102) | -0.92 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#117) | -1.77 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#202) | 0.438 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 10.6% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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