Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | STET +475 LAS -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +15 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | LAS -11.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -10.8 (-4.2) | 145.5 (+23.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -9.5 (-5.5) | 143.8 (+25.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -8.2 (-6.8) | 143.4 (+25.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -7.8 (-7.2) | 145.5 (+23.5) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#334) | 1.1 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.36 (#355) | 0.09 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.81 (#352) | -0.44 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.347 (#336) | 0.513 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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