Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -36.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +47 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -27.3 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.8 (-36.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -29.2 (+17.8) | 152.7 (-25.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -27.3 (+19.7) | 155.2 (-28.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -24.2 (+22.8) | 152.6 (-25.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -25.2 (+21.8) | 150.9 (-23.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 2-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#34) | -10.1 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#149) | -2.85 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#147) | -4.08 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#174) | 0.309 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 46.5 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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