Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -7500 WIN +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -17.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -16.8 (-1.8) | 148.6 (-11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -18.0 (-3.0) | 147.0 (-10.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -16.9 (-1.9) | 146.1 (-9.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -13.0 (+2.0) | 148.7 (-11.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#46) | -1.3 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#165) | -0.40 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#145) | -0.47 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#209) | 0.470 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 38.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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