Betting Lines
| Spread | MILW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | MILW -210 PRST +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MILW +17 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | PRST -2.9 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MILW -1.2 (+15.8) | 153.8 (+11.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -0.2 (+17.2) | 153.5 (+11.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -0.0 (+17.0) | 157.6 (+7.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MILW -2.0 (+15.0) | 154.1 (+10.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#247) | 5.4 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#211) | 0.62 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#221) | 1.30 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#200) | 0.563 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 45.5% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 41.9% |
Game Analysis
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