Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -135 LAM +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -6.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -5.2 (-3.2) | 147.5 (+4.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -4.7 (-2.7) | 149.7 (+2.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -5.5 (-3.5) | 147.9 (+4.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -5.4 (-3.4) | 144.3 (+7.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#183) | -6.6 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#249) | -1.98 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#236) | -2.69 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#246) | 0.291 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.0% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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