Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | HAW +1100 UNC -2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +18 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -16.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -7.5 (-10.5) | 154.7 (+1.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -9.5 (-8.5) | 155.6 (+0.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.0 (-12.0) | 158.4 (-2.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -11.1 (-6.9) | 158.7 (-2.7) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#245) | 18.9 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#138) | 1.17 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#154) | 2.09 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#252) | 0.614 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 11.3% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 39.9% | 33.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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