Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD +100 TOL -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +35 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -6.6 (+41.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-33.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -1.2 (+36.2) | 147.5 (-22.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -2.8 (+37.8) | 148.9 (-23.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -1.6 (+36.6) | 148.4 (-23.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -0.6 (+35.6) | 146.4 (-21.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 12-2 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#139) | 8.5 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#163) | 2.48 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#170) | 3.23 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#271) | 0.645 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 2.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 10.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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