Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU -145 NE +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +4 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -5.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -2.2 (-6.2) | 131.4 (-17.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -3.2 (-7.2) | 133.1 (-19.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -3.8 (-7.8) | 132.5 (-18.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -2.0 (-6.0) | 130.5 (-16.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#132) | 3.5 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#246) | 0.36 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#222) | 0.57 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#183) | 0.466 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 52.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.9% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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