Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -155 MORG +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +9 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -5.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -4.4 (+4.6) | 154.8 (+0.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -4.7 (+4.3) | 154.7 (+0.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -4.2 (+4.8) | 154.7 (+0.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -2.6 (+6.4) | 156.0 (-1.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-7 |
| Home | 6-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#310) | -6.9 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#268) | -1.97 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#299) | -2.84 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#287) | 0.373 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 22.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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