Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -650 UND +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -6.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -4.9 (-8.9) | 134.5 (+15.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -4.0 (-8.0) | 132.2 (+17.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -3.2 (-7.2) | 132.8 (+17.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -4.7 (-8.7) | 135.1 (+14.9) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#241) | -3.8 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#320) | 0.61 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.67 (#337) | 1.27 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.307 (#354) | 0.665 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.2% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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