Betting Lines
| Spread | GB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +100 GB -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +17 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | GB -6.8 (+23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GB -4.5 (+21.5) | 147.9 (+31.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GB -3.9 (+20.9) | 148.7 (+30.3) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GB -3.6 (+20.6) | 147.6 (+31.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GB -5.0 (+22.0) | 153.1 (+25.9) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-18 |
| Home | 7-9 | 3-11 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -12.6 (#347) | 0.6 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#318) | -0.30 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#306) | -0.77 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#281) | 0.488 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 25.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 61.3% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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