Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MAN +100 ARMY -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +1 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -3.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -2.9 (-1.9) | 151.2 (+7.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -3.7 (-2.7) | 146.4 (+12.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -4.0 (-3.0) | 147.7 (+11.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -2.7 (-1.7) | 149.2 (+9.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | ARMY 81 – 78 MAN |
| Nov 26, 2022 | MAN 72 – 71 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#266) | -2.8 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#173) | 0.61 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#181) | 0.99 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#273) | 0.572 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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