Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY +110 MAN -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -5.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -2.7 (+0.3) | 150.6 (+8.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -2.8 (+0.2) | 149.4 (+9.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -3.6 (-0.6) | 151.5 (+7.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -2.0 (+1.0) | 150.4 (+8.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | MAN 80 – 79 ARMY |
| Nov 26, 2022 | MAN 72 – 71 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 6-10 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#337) | -12.4 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#341) | -1.22 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.78 (#345) | -1.56 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#336) | 0.442 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 58.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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