I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Pauley Pavilion · November 23, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UCLA -26.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money UCLA -100000 / CSUF +4000
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCLA win
Actual UCLA +33 127 Won
Massey UCLA -26.7 (+6.3)
Massey Totals 129.9 (-2.9)
Bradley-Terry 95%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML UCLA -25.9 (+7.1) 133.3 (-6.3) 91%
Baseline ML UCLA -26.6 (+6.4) 133.3 (-6.3) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML UCLA -24.4 (+8.6) 133.1 (-6.1) 91%
Efficiency Plus ML UCLA -23.0 (+10.0) 133.1 (-6.1) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCLA CSUF
Overall 23-11 6-26
Conference 13-7 1-19
Home 15-2 4-11
Away 5-5 2-15
Neutral 3-4 0-0
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L12
Avg Pts For 74.2 62.3
Avg Pts Against 65.2 78.7
Massey 13.2 (#23) -7.2 (#302)
Bradley-Terry 0.69 (#134) -0.76 (#251)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.26 (#121) -1.24 (#251)
RPI 0.507 (#162) 0.491 (#185)
Shooting & Four Factors UCLA CSUF
FG% 48.1% 38.6%
3PT% 31.7% 28.9%
REB / G 37.4 27.8
OREB / G 11.8 8.6
AST / TO 1.22 0.56
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.7% 43.4%
TOV% 18.8% 21.5%
ORB% 38.6% 26.2%
FT Rate 30.0% 31.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.7% 53.0%
Opp TOV% 25.9% 18.1%
DRB% 73.1% 60.8%
Opp FT Rate 17.9% 30.2%

Game Analysis

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