Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -130 BU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -1.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -2.1 (-6.1) | 136.2 (+9.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.4 (-6.4) | 137.9 (+8.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.4 (-5.4) | 137.7 (+8.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.2 (-4.2) | 132.7 (+13.3) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-9 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#343) | -7.2 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.27 (#353) | -2.80 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.75 (#351) | -3.49 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.291 (#358) | 0.308 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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