Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -5000 NORF +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -4.3 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -1.8 (+19.8) | 145.0 (+19.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -1.6 (+19.6) | 145.5 (+18.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.8 (+18.8) | 144.0 (+20.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -0.5 (+17.5) | 144.3 (+19.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 5-4 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#259) | 6.0 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#232) | 0.82 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#229) | 1.53 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#210) | 0.556 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 56.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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