Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | INST -3000 CHST +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +36 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | INST -17.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -15.0 (+21.0) | 151.3 (+6.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -14.7 (+21.3) | 149.4 (+8.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -13.4 (+22.6) | 147.8 (+10.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -16.5 (+19.5) | 152.8 (+5.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 3-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#307) | -18.5 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#288) | -3.11 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#309) | -4.98 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#331) | 0.429 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 38.8% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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