Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -800 UCR +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -11.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -11.6 (-13.6) | 146.8 (+5.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -11.4 (-13.4) | 147.6 (+4.4) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -10.1 (-12.1) | 146.2 (+5.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -10.7 (-12.7) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#154) | -4.0 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#123) | 0.36 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#104) | -1.78 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#67) | 0.593 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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