Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -5000 SFPA +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +17 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -9.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -10.6 (+6.4) | 138.4 (+8.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -8.8 (+8.2) | 139.4 (+7.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -9.2 (+7.8) | 139.5 (+7.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -9.7 (+7.3) | 141.2 (+5.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#220) | -6.3 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#121) | 0.88 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#69) | 1.20 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#115) | 0.559 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.