Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NU -4000 PEPP +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +18 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | NU -16.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -17.8 (+0.2) | 138.7 (-20.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -18.2 (-0.2) | 141.1 (-23.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -16.5 (+1.5) | 140.1 (-22.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -16.9 (+1.1) | 137.1 (-19.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 13-22 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#87) | -4.5 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#103) | -0.77 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#111) | -1.28 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#122) | 0.480 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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