Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | AMCC -800 LEM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -8.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -6.8 (+14.2) | 152.7 (-9.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -6.5 (+14.5) | 150.9 (-7.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -5.8 (+15.2) | 150.2 (-7.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -7.4 (+13.6) | 148.7 (-5.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#218) | -4.8 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#197) | -0.26 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#190) | 0.21 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#251) | 0.489 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.4% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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