Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | SMU +105 MSST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -0.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -1.8 (-6.8) | 154.6 (+8.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -2.3 (-7.3) | 155.9 (+7.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -3.4 (-8.4) | 157.9 (+5.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -3.6 (-8.6) | 159.3 (+3.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | SMU 87 – 81 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#62) | 13.8 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#178) | 1.81 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#188) | 2.32 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#190) | 0.605 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 2.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 40.7% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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