He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Humphrey Coliseum · November 29, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MSST -1.5 Away covered
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSST win
Actual SMU +6 168 Lost
Massey SMU -5.6 (-0.4)
Massey Totals 166.7 (+1.3)
Bradley-Terry 16%
Weighted B-T 10%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -4.3 (-1.7) 157.3 (+10.7) 41%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -4.5 (-1.5) 154.1 (+13.9) 33%
Baseline ML SMU -5.2 (-0.8) 154.5 (+13.5) 34%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -7.5 (+1.5) 159.1 (+8.9) 28%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 23, 2024 MSST 8479 SMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSST SMU
Overall 13-19 20-14
Conference 5-13 8-10
Home 8-8 15-3
Away 4-6 3-8
Neutral 1-5 2-3
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L6 L2
Avg Pts For 77.6 84.1
Avg Pts Against 81.8 77.9
Massey -0.2 (#172) 11.0 (#51)
Bradley-Terry 0.42 (#153) 3.13 (#16)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.21 (#119) 4.58 (#21)
RPI 0.495 (#185) 0.621 (#32)
Shooting & Four Factors MSST SMU
FG% 45.1% 50.4%
3PT% 33.1% 37.4%
REB / G 40.8 40.1
OREB / G 12.5 12.0
AST / TO 1.02 1.64
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.3% 56.3%
TOV% 18.8% 15.5%
ORB% 33.0% 34.4%
FT Rate 22.0% 33.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 45.6%
Opp TOV% 14.6% 22.0%
DRB% 69.1% 67.7%
Opp FT Rate 21.4% 24.7%

Game Analysis

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