Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -270 USM +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +25 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -8.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -10.2 (+14.8) | 151.7 (+25.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -9.0 (+16.0) | 153.5 (+23.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -7.5 (+17.5) | 152.1 (+24.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -11.0 (+14.0) | 153.7 (+23.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2023 | SDST 65 – 54 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#207) | -3.7 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#154) | -0.98 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#122) | -2.15 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#289) | 0.432 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 45.5% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 59.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 27.5% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 80.4% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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