Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | USM +150 SDST -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +11 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -5.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -3.1 (-14.1) | 142.8 (-23.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -3.9 (-14.9) | 145.1 (-26.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -4.0 (-15.0) | 143.8 (-24.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -3.1 (-14.1) | 136.5 (-17.5) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | SDST 101 – 76 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#289) | -4.7 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#317) | -2.59 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#305) | -3.77 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.251 (#359) | 0.428 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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