The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
Reed Green Coliseum · November 23, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SDST -2.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money USM +150 / SDST -138
Model Predictions
Spread Total USM win
Actual SDST +11 119 Lost
Massey USM -5.6 (-16.6)
Massey Totals 154.1 (-35.1)
Bradley-Terry 89%
Weighted B-T 96%
Baseline Plus ML USM -3.1 (-14.1) 142.8 (-23.8) 54%
Baseline ML USM -3.9 (-14.9) 145.1 (-26.1) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML USM -4.0 (-15.0) 143.8 (-24.8) 62%
Efficiency Plus ML USM -3.1 (-14.1) 136.5 (-17.5) 54%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 21, 2024 SDST 10176 USM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USM SDST
Overall 16-16 22-13
Conference 9-9 12-4
Home 11-3 11-3
Away 5-9 6-5
Neutral 0-4 5-5
Last 5 0-3 0-4
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 69.9 75.2
Avg Pts Against 72.9 72.0
Massey -6.3 (#289) -4.7 (#273)
Bradley-Terry -1.98 (#317) -2.59 (#338)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.58 (#305) -3.77 (#334)
RPI 0.251 (#359) 0.428 (#265)
Shooting & Four Factors USM SDST
FG% 40.1% 46.0%
3PT% 38.6% 39.3%
REB / G 30.3 31.8
OREB / G 9.7 9.5
AST / TO 0.94 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.2% 53.4%
TOV% 17.9% 17.3%
ORB% 26.6% 26.4%
FT Rate 21.0% 18.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.2% 58.5%
Opp TOV% 23.3% 17.3%
DRB% 72.9% 70.6%
Opp FT Rate 27.6% 22.0%

Game Analysis

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