Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY -280 FDU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -15.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARMY -11.5 (+2.5) | 154.5 (-0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -11.7 (+2.3) | 156.0 (-2.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -12.1 (+1.9) | 155.1 (-1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -13.5 (+0.5) | 153.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | ARMY 81 – 73 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#216) | -11.5 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#168) | 0.05 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#168) | 0.07 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#100) | 0.540 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 59.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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