Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Monmouth Hawks
62 72
FINAL Neutral Axe 'Em Classic
Youngstown State Penguins
William R. Johnson Coliseum (Neutral) · November 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread YSU -4.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money MONM +165 / YSU -195
Model Predictions
Spread Total MONM win
Actual YSU +10 134 Lost
Massey YSU -5.1 (-4.9)
Massey Totals 159.5 (-25.5)
Bradley-Terry 12%
Weighted B-T 6%
Baseline Plus ML YSU -4.5 (-5.5) 154.0 (-20.0) 34%
Baseline ML YSU -4.2 (-5.8) 150.2 (-16.2) 31%
Baseline Tuned ML YSU -4.7 (-5.3) 147.7 (-13.7) 33%
Efficiency Plus ML YSU -3.8 (-6.2) 147.9 (-13.9) 29%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MONM YSU
Overall 13-20 21-13
Conference 10-8 13-7
Home 8-2 10-5
Away 4-14 9-6
Neutral 1-4 2-2
Last 5 0-5 1-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.3 73.7
Avg Pts Against 75.4 72.6
Massey -7.5 (#305) -2.4 (#217)
Bradley-Terry -1.83 (#314) 0.17 (#175)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.60 (#308) 0.22 (#178)
RPI 0.426 (#268) 0.524 (#152)
Shooting & Four Factors MONM YSU
FG% 35.8% 37.7%
3PT% 33.6% 22.2%
REB / G 36.0 37.7
OREB / G 13.8 12.3
AST / TO 0.95 0.78
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 42.0% 41.9%
TOV% 17.2% 15.6%
ORB% 32.2% 28.5%
FT Rate 24.2% 32.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 57.0% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 15.1% 16.3%
DRB% 68.1% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 40.0% 27.9%

Game Analysis

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