Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ASU -2000 CP +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +4 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -12.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -12.3 (-8.3) | 151.0 (+31.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -11.4 (-7.4) | 149.3 (+32.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -11.3 (-7.3) | 147.7 (+34.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -13.0 (-9.0) | 153.4 (+28.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-12 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#44) | 4.5 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#28) | 1.45 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#22) | 2.64 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.703 (#15) | 0.594 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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