Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NICH +125 TOW -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | NICH -7.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -4.0 (-10.0) | 136.1 (-2.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -4.5 (-10.5) | 135.1 (-1.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -3.6 (-9.6) | 134.5 (-0.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -3.6 (-9.6) | 136.0 (-2.0) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | TOW 65 – 55 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#231) | -4.0 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#303) | -0.58 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#320) | -1.02 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#251) | 0.495 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.9% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 10.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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