Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -420 NICH +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -4.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -3.9 (+6.1) | 139.7 (-19.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -4.2 (+5.8) | 140.1 (-20.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -4.2 (+5.8) | 139.0 (-19.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -5.9 (+4.1) | 139.1 (-19.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | TOW 70 – 64 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#205) | -1.8 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#258) | -0.14 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#248) | -0.45 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#221) | 0.509 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 16.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 43.4% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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