Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | VT -1200 JAX +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -9.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -9.4 (-19.4) | 135.5 (+2.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -9.5 (-19.5) | 136.3 (+1.7) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -8.0 (-18.0) | 135.4 (+2.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -9.7 (-19.7) | 135.5 (+2.5) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#151) | -1.2 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#161) | 0.12 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#167) | 0.16 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#131) | 0.531 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 15.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 26.5% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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