Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | RICH -425 ME +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -0.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -0.9 (+3.1) | 135.9 (+0.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -1.2 (+2.8) | 133.1 (+2.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -0.1 (+4.1) | 132.8 (+3.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -2.1 (+1.9) | 135.8 (+0.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-6 |
| Home | 6-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#287) | 0.6 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#340) | 0.18 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.28 (#349) | 0.10 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#296) | 0.488 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 23.9% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.4% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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