Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD +110 LAS -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -5.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -0.4 (+5.4) | 139.0 (+0.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -2.7 (+7.7) | 140.9 (-1.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -3.8 (+8.8) | 139.7 (-0.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -1.1 (+6.1) | 138.2 (+0.8) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 12-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#187) | 5.0 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#305) | 2.94 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#305) | 4.01 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.290 (#351) | 0.682 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 11.6% |
Game Analysis
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