Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | URI -1500 LAF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | URI -24.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -21.7 (-7.7) | 148.7 (+9.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -24.1 (-10.1) | 149.0 (+9.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -18.9 (-4.9) | 150.3 (+7.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -17.6 (-3.6) | 149.4 (+8.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#54) | -8.0 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#86) | -1.03 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#94) | -2.22 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#36) | 0.489 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.1% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 52.3% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 58.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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