Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT -280 MORG +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +3 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -18.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -7.6 (-4.6) | 156.1 (+12.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -11.8 (-8.8) | 155.3 (+13.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -12.9 (-9.9) | 155.7 (+13.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -12.1 (-9.1) | 156.3 (+12.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | NCAT 79 – 73 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 7-7 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#138) | -9.8 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#147) | -1.90 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#141) | -2.83 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#80) | 0.391 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 15.8% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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