Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | MORG +120 NCAT -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +6 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -5.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -2.5 (-8.5) | 150.3 (+1.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -2.6 (-8.6) | 151.1 (+0.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -3.5 (-9.5) | 151.1 (+0.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -2.7 (-8.7) | 152.9 (-0.9) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | NCAT 86 – 83 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#257) | -3.4 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#330) | -0.28 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#317) | -0.62 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#293) | 0.484 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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