Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -360 ILL +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +13 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -2.7 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -1.2 (+11.8) | 167.2 (+19.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -0.4 (+12.6) | 156.8 (+30.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -1.1 (+11.9) | 155.9 (+31.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.3 (+13.3) | 161.2 (+25.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | ALA 90 – 86 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#35) | 14.4 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#61) | 1.53 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#48) | 2.18 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#32) | 0.540 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 47.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 35.1% | 36.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 38.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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