Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 180.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -140 ALA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +4 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -9.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.6 (-9.6) | 167.3 (+8.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -7.8 (-11.8) | 162.3 (+13.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -8.0 (-12.0) | 159.0 (+17.0) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -8.2 (-12.2) | 164.5 (+11.5) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | ALA 100 – 87 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#5) | 8.4 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#55) | 1.38 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#54) | 2.68 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#43) | 0.647 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 48.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 44.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 81.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.0% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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