Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -7500 NORF +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -13.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -15.0 (-8.0) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -13.8 (-6.8) | 143.0 (-10.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -12.8 (-5.8) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -13.8 (-6.8) | 136.5 (-3.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-3 |
| Home | 17-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#36) | 4.0 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#46) | 0.83 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#50) | 1.51 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#20) | 0.504 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 36.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 54.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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