Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU -380 NIA +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -13.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -7.7 (+0.3) | 153.9 (-9.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -8.0 (-0.0) | 152.7 (-8.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -7.9 (+0.1) | 152.2 (-8.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -8.2 (-0.2) | 149.0 (-5.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#253) | -10.5 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#332) | -1.51 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.39 (#334) | -2.29 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#341) | 0.267 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.5% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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